dbot quick valuation
What is this company worth, and what is the price assuming?
Try:
To match the price you need 53.3% growth in years 2–5 or a 59.3% target margin. The sheet uses 44.5% and 38.1%.
Damodaran, June 2026: US$97.83 · this sheet at his 4.56% rate: US$99.58
SpaceX
Data as of 16 Oct 2026SpaceX grows revenue 108% next year and 45% a year through year 5, then slows to the economy's pace. Its operating margin goes from −14% to 38% by year 10. Each dollar of new investment brings in $1.97 of revenue.
The assumptions
| Base year | Year 1 | Years 2–5 | Years 6–10 | After year 10 | Link to story | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (millions) | fades → | Revenue reaches US$427B in year 10, then grows at the risk-free rate. Aerospace/Defense averaged 11.1% a year over the last 5 years. | ||||
| Operating margin | −13.92% | → target by year | Aerospace/Defense average: 8.6%. Today: −13.9%. | |||
| Operating income (millions) | Last 12 months, from the latest results. | |||||
| Tax rate | same | same | → | Effective rate now, moving to the marginal rate. | ||
| Reinvestment (sales to capital) | RIR = 33.9% | Each $1 of new capital adds $1.97 of revenue. Industry: 2.74. | ||||
| Return on capital | Keeps earning above its cost of capital after year 10: a lasting edge. | |||||
| Cost of capital | → | Starts at the company's own cost of capital and moves to a mature company's by year 10. | ||||
The cash flows (millions)
| Year | Revenue | Operating margin | EBIT | EBIT (1−t) | Reinvestment | FCFF | Cost of capital | PV of FCFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38,767 | 8.46% | 3,280 | 2,952 | 10,184 | −7,232 | 8.90% | −6,641 |
| 2 | 56,019 | 11.75% | 6,584 | 5,926 | 8,744 | −2,818 | 8.90% | −2,376 |
| 3 | 80,947 | 15.05% | 12,180 | 10,962 | 12,635 | −1,673 | 8.90% | −1,295 |
| 4 | 116,968 | 18.34% | 21,452 | 19,307 | 18,257 | 1,050 | 8.90% | 746 |
| 5 | 169,019 | 21.63% | 36,564 | 32,908 | 26,382 | 6,526 | 8.90% | 4,261 |
| 6 | 230,911 | 24.93% | 57,558 | 50,076 | 16,957 | 33,119 | 8.88% | 19,861 |
| 7 | 297,265 | 28.22% | 83,888 | 70,466 | 18,179 | 52,287 | 8.85% | 28,806 |
| 8 | 359,257 | 31.51% | 113,214 | 91,703 | 16,984 | 74,719 | 8.83% | 37,825 |
| 9 | 405,860 | 34.81% | 141,266 | 110,188 | 12,768 | 97,420 | 8.80% | 45,327 |
| 10 | 426,518 | 38.10% | 162,503 | 121,877 | 5,660 | 116,218 | 8.78% | 49,708 |
| Terminal year | 448,228 | 38.10% | 170,775 | 128,081 | 43,462 | 84,619 | 8.78% |
The value
| Terminal value | 2,293,195 |
| PV of terminal value | 980,841 |
| PV of cash flows, years 1–10 | 176,222 |
| Value of operating assets | 1,157,063 |
| Probability of failure | |
| Adjustment for distress | – |
| − Debt | |
| + Cash and other non-operating assets | |
| Value of equity | 1,233,914 |
| Number of shares (millions) | |
| Value per share | US$92.76 |
| Share price | |
| Value vs share price | −35.4% |
| Risk-free rate (USD) | |
| Equity risk premium | |
| Tax losses carried forward |
85% of the business value comes after year 10. It loses money today, so all of the value is the value of growth.
How to read the result
Technical
Most companies use an FCFF model after Damodaran's Ginzu sheet: revenue growth, a target operating margin and sales-to-capital reinvestment drive ten years of free cash flow to the firm, discounted at a cost of capital that moves to a mature company's by year 10, plus a terminal value.
Plain English
The value is what the company's future cash is worth today. Change the story (growth, margin, how much it must reinvest) and the value moves with it.
Technical
Banks and insurers use a two-stage dividend discount model: growth is ROE × retention, the payout rises as growth fades to the risk-free rate, and dividends are discounted at the cost of equity.
Plain English
For a bank, borrowing is the raw material, not just funding, so the bank is valued by the dividends it can pay.
Technical
The implied figures solve for the growth in years 2–5, the target margin or (for banks) the ROE that makes value per share equal the share price, holding everything else at the sheet's inputs.
Plain English
Instead of only asking what a stock is worth, it asks what the price already assumes, so you can judge whether that's believable.
A worked example
Open Apple. Note the growth the price implies for years 2–5, then type a lower rate into the years 2–5 cell and watch the value per share and the gap to the price change. Press Reset to defaults to go back.
What it can't tell you
- It is one story told with numbers, not a forecast. Small changes to growth, margin or the cost of capital move the value a lot.
- Industry averages come from Damodaran's US data, used as a proxy for Singapore companies.
- Company figures are a snapshot dated on the page. Check them against the latest results before relying on them.
- Most of the value often comes after year 10, which no one can see clearly.
Source: Industry averages, cost of capital and equity risk premium: Aswath Damodaran, January 2026 data and his October 2026 implied premium. Checked 19 Oct 2026.
Source: Company figures: each company's latest results, with the source and period shown under the sheet. Checked 19 Oct 2026.
Disclosure: dbot follows the spreadsheets Aswath Damodaran publishes. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by him.
For education only. Not financial advice.